Why Exit And Opinion Polls Prove Wrong Every Time?

It was a confusing live coverage of Bihar results. While the national channel were, initially,  showing clear lead to BJP-led NDA alliance , the regional channels were flashing Nitish-Lalu led grand alliance's lead. The fact that initial trends are, more often,  illusive have been proved many times,. Despite this, panelists and anchors on national channels were congratulating BJP  and berating grand alliance. But, it was different on regional channels. By the 10 AM, as more and more trends started trickling in, it was quite clear that grand alliance of Nitish-Lalu was surging ahead. And national channels changed the tone and tenor. Panelists and anchors were full of appreciation for Nitish-Lalu grand alliance. The final results, like Delhi were drastically different from initial trends.  It was quite amusing to many of the watchers. How come, two distinct  trends showing opposite results emerged.  So much so that some anchors moderating  various live coverage of news channels were also amused.  It could be the initially trends were in favour of BJP led alliance as counting are region and area focused. It happens, more often than not, that a voting pattern of one area is quite different from others. As such, initial trends could favour one party but final results are different. Such trends more conspicuous in local issues driven assembly elections. It  had happened in January 2012 Punjab assembly elections, The initial trends favoured Congress but final results were in favour SAD-BJP alliance. However, in such a situation, both national and regional channels had shown the same results. In Bihar case on Saturday, the scenario was different.  The counting can't show two different trends. May be that TRP crazy news channels out to outperform each-other  were just sensationalizing the results or were just fudging the trends.  Unfortunately, media is often influenced by the personal prejudices. The bias is quite discernible not only in electronic media but also in print media. Once again, the coverage of Bihar elections have proved this. The exit polls and opinion polls are wide of the mark. Neither print nor Electronic media could perceive that there was a Lalu-Nitish wave.. Lalu Prasad Yadav's RJD has emerged the largest single party even overtaking Nitish Kumur JD(U). BJP has just finished third while initial trends had placed BJP on top. The verdict in  Bhiar is not surprising. Indian voters have given decisive verdict om many occasions, especially when it comes to their pride. This time pride of Biharis was in danger. Lalu and Nitish are the pride of Biharis. Prime Minister Narendra Modi  by belittling Lalu and Nitish had hurt the pride. The same thing had happened in Delhi. BJP had hurt the Delhites' pride by belittling the Arvind Kejriwal. And neither ruling party BJP and the pollsters could not even gauge the psyche of the people.  No exit poll gave Nitish-Lalu alliance more than 130 sets except News X and Times Now. On the contrary, News24 channel had given BJP led alliance 155 seats. The science of  measuring voters' behavior has yet not fully developed in India. Human physiology is one of the toughest science and it requires true representative samples and accurate primary data.  Conclusions about caste and community vote patterns in elections are all based on erroneous data. At best, we can only make qualitative assessments. From the last day of polling to the day results are announced, analysis  are based on data which are almost never close to being correct. This is understandable. The diversity of India extends to every village, so it is almost impossible to ensure that any sample size is completely representative. And even when through some measure of luck a pollster arrives at a reasonable estimate of vote share, converting this into actual seats is perilous. Thus, the only time exit polls get it right is when they reflect an obvious change in popular mood, or when they are right only because they are wrong. Indian media need to learn from its mistakes.