A Year Of Jairam Govt In H.P." Not Very Inspiring

There is an old saying" Cut Your Coat According To Your Cloth". A state reeling under severe financial crunch is, surely. expected to follow this dictum. Alas! whether Congress or BJP- two main power stakeholders in Himachal Pradesh- have just splurged the scare financial resources. And present govt headed by a son of a "poor' farmer is no exception.

Jairam Thakur hosted a grand oath-taking ceremony at Shimla 'sinking' Ridge' last year despite his vow to desist from pump and show and wasteful expenditure. governance. A year later, he is hosting another grand show tomorrow (December 27), this time at Dharamsala. Its a moot question whether a state running its day-to day expenses by borrowing really needed two extravaganzas within a year. According to rough estimate more than 10 crore is spent in hosting one grand show.

Himachal live in the rural areas as 90 percent of its population earn their livelihood by toiling on farms. Over 58 percent Himachalis have income less than Rs. 5000 per month despite 24 percent of ruralites. Even after more than seven decades of its existence, 80 percent of rural population still lack basic amenities. More than 60 percent of rural population are deprived of potable drinking water.

There is acute shortage of drinking water even during winter and people still are dependent on traditional sources like "kulhs, bawaris and rain-fed streams. Taps often run dry. Govt claims 100 percent electrification but 24-hour power supply in winter is still a distant dream. On the contrary, frequent power cuts, especially during winter are now a routine affairs in the state. Easy access to public services is nowhere to be seen notwithstanding the existence of Public Service Guarantee Act. This act has remained more on paper than in implementation.

Having come from a humble background, Chief Minister Jairam Thakur was expected to be totally different in working and in vision. He needed to cough up enough financial resources to meet the rising aspirations of the people. Sadly, The situation has gone from bad to worse. In order to meet its expenditure, present govt has borrowed over 35,00 crore. State coffer is almost empty.

Debt to Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) ratio stands st 38 per cent. The chairman of 15th Finance Commission while in Shimla had warned the govt that it was unsustainable. CAG in its 2017 report had warned Himachal as heading towards debt trap, The per capita debt has increased from Rs 40,904 in 2011-12 to over 65,000 in 2018. State will be required to spent 62 % of its income on debt-servicing i next 7 years. The state was required to cut down its revenue deficit to zero by 2011‑12 and maintain a revenue surplus thereafter but at the end of 2016-17, fiscal deficit at  at Rs 7,855 crore is touching 5.2% of GSDP for 2018-19.

 

What is more alarming is that borrowings are used for repayment of earlier debts, salary and pension liabilities. Out of its one Rs receipt, Rs 26.91 is spent on salary, Rs 13.83 on pension, Rs. 9.78 on interest and Rs. 9.93 on loan repayment leaving just Rs 39.55 percent for development. Worse, out of this money, a large chunk is plagiarized by middlemen and corrupt officials. No state can financially survive for long on borrowings.

In the absence of rail and air transport, roads are lifeline of the state, needs better roads. However, fund crunch leaves majority of roads in bad shape and accidents occur frequently. Road accidents have taken away as many as 29,555 lives in the State in last decade ending 2015. State has suffered a loss of more than Rs. 1,600 crore due to heavy monsoon rains and untimely snowfall in tribal areas and 343 lives were lost. Almost all roads in the sate suffered huge damages. It goes to credit of Jairam Thakur govt that maximum of roads were repaired in time.

Unfortunately, Himachal hasn't been given any big broad gauge line in the last seven decades. There are just two narrow-gauge rail lines-Shimla-Kalka and Pathankot-Jogindernagar- laid by colonial rulers before independence. Te people hope that Prime Minster Narendra Modi makes some announcement in Dharamsala grand show.

There are several unique features that have telling bearing on fiscal resources and expenditure needs of this hill state . High cost of development is among them. According to a report of Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi , submitted to 14th Finance Commission, estimation of the cost function, and subsequent computation of the sector-wise costs for health, primary and secondary education, and the roads and bridges sector, reveals that costs are about 2 to 3 times higher for hill areas as compared to plain areas.The costs in social sector, including health and education, 270% higher for hill areas as compared to plain areas. The reports says simple average of the cost mark-ups for the five hill states reveals that costs in hill areas are approximately 2.5 times or 250% higher than in plain areas.

People need speedy, reliable and targeted delivery system . It can be ensured only in a committed set-up. It was the failure of the deliver system that was responsible to overthrow the Congress govt and change the government every five year. Jairam Govt's "janmanch " could be a good step to ensure speedy delivery of services. But "Janmanch" needed to be followed up. People get disillusioned sooner than later. Himachalis are known for their honesty, simplicity and hard work . They expect their leaders to become their icons. Sadly, even a year of a common man's son rule hasn't been as inspiring. Give him some time.

Chander Sharma

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Once Again Nation's Conscience Is Shaken

"Democracy dies in darkness". And nothing is more darker than killing the voice of dissent. In fact, the very survival of  democracy depends how freedom of speech and expression. 

How is that  criticizing the contemporary rulers is a threat to national security? Nothing can be more dangerous than such antics of a democratically ruled state. Once again nation's conscience has been shaken after  Imphal-based journalist Kishorechandra Wangkhem, was sentenced to a 12-month jail term – the maximum period of detention allowed under the National Security Act- for video criticizing the BJP-led State Government. 

He was arrested under sections 294 and 500 of the IPC in addition to section 124 A, which deals with sedition. However, on being produced before a local court on November 25, it released him on bail on the ground that his words were “a mere expression of opinion against the public conduct of a public figure in a street language.”

Kishorechandra, working as an anchor-reporter with ISTV, a local news channel, uploaded a video on social media, criticizing the BJP-led state government. In Meitei language, he severely condemned the state chief minister N. Biren Singh for organising a function to commemorate the fight of the Rani of Jhansi against the British and linking it to the freedom movement of Manipur. That was enough to enrage the rulers. He  was taken into custody by the state police under the National Security Act (NSA) on November 21 and thereafter case was made to jail him.  

Kishorechandra is alleged to have  used foul language against the BJP-led government and the ideological mentor of the party, the RSS, besides challenging the state government to arrest him if it could for opposing the function.

The advisory board of NSA, set up under Section 9 of the Act to look into the allegations brought by the state government against the journalist, met on December 11 and conducted hearings on the matter. Two days late, on December 13, the board submitted its report to the authorities approving his detention under the NSA.

The  order said: “After considering the proximate past activities of the [detainee] and potential danger of his activities which are prejudicial to the security of the state and maintenance of public order and there is apprehension of his continuing to act in [similarly] prejudicial activities, the moment he is released from detention, is further of the opinion that the said person should be detained for the maximum period of 12 months as provided under Section 13 of the said Act.”

Quoting the the magistrate’s order, local news reports said:

“It does not appear to me as an act which is intended to create enmity between different groups of people community, sections etc. nor does it appear to be one which attempts to bring hatred, contempt, dissatisfaction against the government of India or of the state. It is mere expression of opinion against the prime minister and chief minister of Manipur which cannot be equated with an attack to invite people to violence against the government of India or Manipur to topple it.”

Recent developments reminds us the dark days of emergency. Nation's democratic conscience was shaken. During those dark days, the country was turned into a large prison.Opposition leaders were woken up from sleep and taken to the nearest jail forcibly. More than three lakh people  including the then RSS Chief Balasaheb Deoras. Jai Prakash Narayan, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Lal Krishna Advani, George Fernandes, Charan Singh, Morarji Desai, Nanaji Deshmukh, Madhu Dandavate, and present day prominent leaders Ram Vilas Paswan, Dr Subramanian Swamy, Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar were found to be a threat to the security of the country like Maipur journo Kishorechandra, and were imprisoned. Even Prime Minister Narendra Modi remained underground to mobilise support against Emergency.

Then country resolved never to let it happen again. Sadly, the  imprisonment of journalist  Kishorechandra  reminds us nation has learnt any lessons from those dark days.  days. Unfortunately, those who were on the forefront of vowing to defend democratic values are now the people stifling the freedom of expression. 

History teaches us tyrants and demigods have not survived for long and in the end truth always prevails. Remember the what father of the Nation, Mahatma Gandhi had said  “When I despair, I remember that all through history the way of truth and love has always won. There have been tyrants and murderers and for a time they seem invincible, but in the end, they always fall … think of it, always,” 

( Chander Sharma)

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Congress Legacy Of One-Line Resolution

"Old practices die hard" is an familiar idiom aptly applies on  Grand Old Party. Congressmen   keep doing  certain things  which have been inculcated in their blood. And one of them is the legacy over choice of a leader.   Whether, its the leader of legislative party or state party set-up, Congressmen leave it to National party president. A theatrical farce is enacted. Newly legislators are called and directed by the central observers to pass one line resolution leaving the choice national party president. I bet it, this will be followed in Rajasthan. MP and Chhattisgarh. 

The practice started with Indira Gandhi and is religious followed  till now.  For example, whenever national party president has to be elected (in practice enacted), Congressmen even  dare not to think beyond Nehru-Indira family and their scions. For a short while, Congress experimented with leaders from non-Nehru-Indira  family but it didn't work. And ultimately, Congressmen were left with no option but to knock the door of, "videshi bahu of desi putr",  Sonia Gandhi. She led the part from  front from 1998 to Dec 2017. And as  is the GOP practice, She was succeeded  by her son Rahul Gandhi. For Congressmen Nehru-Gandhi family scions are the best bet.

Another typical Congress  is that whenever a non-Nehru-Indira family leader emerges, he is either cut to the size or dies while blooming. From Sardar Patel, Lal Bahadur Shatri, Kamraj, Devraj Urs (both from South ) To P. V. Narasimha Rao,  Rajesh Pilot, Madhavrao Scindia.

P. V. Narasimha Rao's  ascendancy to the prime ministership was politically and economically most  significant. It saw a paradigm shift from the Nehruvian model of industrialising, mixed economy to a market driven economy. He was a versatile personality with interests in a variety of subjects and spoke 17 languages. Dr Manmohan Singh, longest non-Nehru-Indira family PM was his choice and inducted as Finance Minister. Roa was also referred to as Chanakya for his ability to steer tough economic and political legislation through the parliament at a time when he headed a minority government. Unfortunately, he died a unsung death, Congressmen too obsessed with Nehru-Gandhi family even forget to pay tributes to this man who steered a almost bankrupt nation from economic collapse. 

Rajesh Pilot was a mass leader from Rajasthan but died mysteriously  in an road accident. His son Sachin Pilot succeeded him and has emerged as tall Rajasthan leader.  Madhavrao Scindia, nine-term member of the Lok Sabha, Madhavrao Scindia never lost an election.A nine-term member of the Lok Sabha, Madhavrao Scindia never lost an election since 1971. During Janata Party wave of 1977 when Congress was abysmally routed in Hindi heartland, Scindia won as an independent  from Guna seat in MP. He was the President of the Board of Control for Cricket in India from 1990 to 1993. He  died in a plane crash, His son Jyotiraditya Madhavrao Scindia was  anointed his successor.

Both Sachin Pilot and Jyotiraditya Madhavrao Scindia were Congress chief ministerial candidate in MP and Rajasthan respectively but  I am sure will be  denied the post by party high command led by a young national chief, Rahul Gandhi. Congress top leadership engrossed in Indira Gandhi  can't see state leaders emerging more popular than national leadership. Sachin and  Jyotiraditya will be no exception. 

To exert its supreme authority and cut emerging regional leaders to size,   Congress top leadership has devised  a way: Send central observers with a brief to pass a one line resolution to authorise Party national president. who happens to be Nehru-Indira scion, to choose state legislative party leader. This drama is being enacted by Congress Since Indira era. this practice is religiously followed,  Congress under Rahul Gandhi is  no exception.     

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Another Flop Show Of Exit Polls

Exit polls have once again, gone haywire. Since exit polls are conducted at the end of voting, they should be quite  accurate, if not cent percent. But the exit polls on assembly elections in four states, especially in Hindi heart line, are too wild except for Madhya Pradesh.. All polls of exit polls have predicted tough fight in Chhattisgarh, the only state where polling was held in two phases. So much so that Times Now-CNX and India TV had given clear majority to BJP.  Only India Today-Axis exit poll had seen Congress returning to power in Chhattisgarh.

No one could exactly see the Congress tsunami in  naxal-infested Chhattisgarh. Final results show Congress winning as many as  67 seats out of of 90 decimating BJP to just 15. All exit polls had predicted big victory for Congress in Rajasthan and severe  drubbing for BJP's Maharani Vasundhara Raje led party. She was projected as arrogant, totally  cut-off from masses. But final results are not as bad for BJP.  Infact. Congress has just secured a bare majority and BJP doing relatively better. Even, the exit polls for Telangana are wide of the mark. No poll except India Today-Axis could see the strong way in favour of Chandrasekhar Rao's (KCR) Telangana Rashtra Samithi.

The exit polls for Madhya Pradesh have somewhat, got on right track. All polls except Times Now-CNX, were predicting a close fight. And final results showed a see-saw race till the end and no party getting a clear majority (till 7 PM). 

This not first time the exit polls in India have gone too erratic.There have been several instances in the past when exit polls were way off the mark. The most wild was in 2004 Lok Sabha polls when every exit poll was giving a majority to the Atal Bihari Vajyapee led NDA government. The average of all exit polls gave 256 for Vajaypee headed NDA and 183 for Congress led UPA.The actual results were quite contrary. UPA secured 237 seats and NDA just 187. The aggressive "India Shining"BJP campaign didn't click. In 2014, exit polls couldn't see the Modi wave. No exit poll could predict BJP getting absolute majority on its own. Almost all exit polls were giving Congress led UPA anything between 100 to 120 and NDA between 261 to 289. And final results were NDA getting 336 and UPA reduced to just 60. 

During UP Assembly Elections in 2017, ruling Samajwadi party and Congress had stitched an alliance to beat the Modi wave . All exit polls had predicted a hung assembly in Uttar Pradesh, with BJP emerging as the largest party. However, all the exit polls proved wrong and the BJP surprised everyone by winning over 300 seats, way above what exit polls had predicted. 

In 2015 Bihar assembly election 2015: All Exit polls predicted a photo-finish  with no clear majority to any alliance. However, in actual result the RJD-JDU-Congress scored a thumping victory with Lalu Prasad's RJD emerging as the single largest party.

Remember the Delhi assembly elections soon after parliament polls in Feb. 2017. All exit polls were proved wrong. None of them predicted a "tsunami" verdict. All exit polls had given AAP a clear majority and  only one gave AAP more than 50 seats.

Now question is: Why are exit polls way of the mark? Human mind is too diicult to read. Brain is such a complex system with 100 billion neurons and 800 trillion connections. Even worse is that it is not a static system: the brain is dynamic and god knows what number of chemical & electrical activities rise, thunder, and roar every second.

Though Nowadays recording a single neuron activity (or several of them simultaneously) is made possible by the science but researchers say there is no technique as to precisely to record even a major part of it. Given its complexity, how come that a random sampling of few votres can precict human behavior accurately? That too in a country where samples are so heterogeneous and varied, vertically and horizontally divided into so many groups, castes and incomes. That's why most of exit polls go haywire.   

(Chander Sharma )

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बदहाल किसान बस वोट बैंक का पात्र

चुनावी मौसम में भी किसानों  की आर्थिक सुधारने का श्रेय लेने के लिए टीवी चैनल्स पर “कुत्ते-बिल्ली” की तरह लडने वाले  सियासी नेताओं को किसानों की बदहाली की चर्चा करना भी  गवारा नहीं है। बस! बार-बार इस बात की डीगें मारते हैं,“ जो कुछ किया हमने किया, तुमने क्या किया“? आजादी के सात दशक बाद भी किसान कितना बदहाल है, हाल ही की  दो घटनाओं से इसका सहज अनुमान लगाया जा सकता है। महाराष्ट्र  का एक किसान  पिछले सप्ताह नासिक की निफाद मंडी में प्याज की फसल  1.40 रु किलो बिकने पर इस कद्र हताश  हुआ कि उसने अपनी फसल की कमाई प्रधानमंत्री मोदी को भेजी दी। इसके लिए किसान को मनी आर्डर करने के लिए 54 रु और खर्च  करने पडे। चार माह की कडी मेहनत करके 750 किलो प्याज उगाया और यह फसल बिकी 1,064 में। इस कीमत पर तो खर्चा़ भी पूरा नहीं हुआ। और यह वही प्याज है जो कई बार आसमान छूती कीमतों से लोगों को रुला चुका है। बहरहाल, महाराष्ट्र  के अहमदनगर किले के  एक और किसान ने बैगन की फसल 20 पैसे किलो बिकने पर अपनी बची पूरी की पूरी फसल ही उखाड फेंक दी।  बैगन की फसल उगाने के लिए इस किसान ने दो लाख खर्च किए थे मगर मिले मात्र 65,000।   खेती पर गुजर-बसर करने वाला किसान करे तो क्या करे? इन हालात में अपना परिवार पालना भी मुमकिन नहीं है।  अंतोगत्वा,  हताशा  में आत्महत्या करने पर विवश  है। नेताओं को क्या पडी है? एक बार जनता का नुमाइंदा चुन लिए गए तो मौज ही मौज।  आयकर मुक्त  भारी-भरकम वेतन और भत्ते, शान-शौकत और पेंषन। किसान को तो फसल बीमा की सुविधा तक नहीं है। अगर है भी तो बीमा के नाम पर मजाक। कागजों पर बडे-बडे दावे किए जाते हैं। कांग्रेस दावा करती है कि पार्टी ने किसानों के लिए मोदी सरकार से भी ज्यादा किया है। मोदी सरकार का दावा है पिछले चार-पांच साल में किसानों की आय दोगुनी से ज्यादा हो गई है। फिर भी किसान बदहाल है। आखिर क्यों? नासिक के प्याज की पूरे देश  में भारी मांग है। यहां तक कि खाडी देशों  के लिए इसका निर्यात भी किया जाता है। फिर भी प्याज की कीमतों का क्रैश  होना सरकार की नालायकी उजाकर करता है। प्याज के लिए सरकार न्यूनतम निर्यात कीमत तो तय करती है मगर समर्थन मूल्य नहीं। सरकार कांग्रेस की हो या भाजपा की, किसानों की भलाई से कहीं ज्यादा नेताओं को वोट बैंक की पडी रहती है। आप  माने या न माने, इस देश  का यही शाश्वत  सच है।

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