RaGa In "Kop Bhavan"

After severely mauled and bruised in 2019 parliament elections, Congress party chief, Rahul Gandh has been sulking and has taken refuse in "kop bhavan (sulking chamber)". He has been eluding even top party leaders and not taking calls.

This is not expected from a leader of the grand old party, that once was an integral part of India freedom movement and post-independence politico and economic development. What does he want to tell the world? Is he afraid of facing the post defeat wrath of party leaders and workers? Or does he want party leaders and workers to beg of him for not relinquishing the top post as is the party culture? Whatever may be his intentions, he hasn't done any service to the party. Blame game has already intensified in Congress and leaders are passing the buck onto each-others. Fortunately for RaGa, no one has blamed him and he has squarely owned the responsibility of drubbing at the hustings. Whatever may be the reasons , he hasn't done any service to the party.

Running away from the front is an act of cowardice and shunning away from given responsibilities. He was chosen as an natural successor to Nehru-Gandhi dynasty in Congress with much fanfare. Undoubtedly, the rally point behind this was the blind faith and rising expectations of leading the party from the front to a victory. It is no secret that Nehru-Gandhi dynasty sans Congress party is seen , piratically, a big lump. Even with Rahul Gandhi at the helm of affairs, Congress had to drag "unwilling" Priyanka Gandhi Vadra into election scene though it was a late move. its a different matter that she turned out to be a crowd-puller, but not as vote catcher.

So why is that Rahul Gandhi is in Kop Bhavan? And worse now entire party has decided to remain in this mode for a month, declared Congress spokesperson, Randeep Surjewala on Thursday just a few hours ahead of prime minister swearing-in. obviously, GOP is passing through its worst ever crisis and at he moment sees no light in the pith- dark prospects. Going into sulking chamber is no solution for a party that ruled longest part of post independent India. Its an insult to to those people,who despite "Modi wave" voted for the Congress.

In Indian scriptures and history, the Kop Bhavans (sulking chambers) were known to be used for redemption of “sins” or purgation of the self. Kop Bhavans, were the places or homes to convalesce, lament, brood, grieve, sulk or even cry to come to terms with oneself. This closet was also used to invite attention of someone who mattered, and also for seeking favours from him. Kop Bhavans provided the desired calmness of ambiance.

In Ramayana, King Dasaratha tries to pacify Kaikayee,the step-mother of Ram, after she went into Kop Bhavan, ostensibly to invite concern of her husband. King made a promise and it resulted in banishing Rama to jungles for 14 years. Later, Dashrath died in Kop Bhavan, grieving separation of Ram, Sita and Laxman.

The message of this episode is that even Kop Bhawan doesn't offer any concrete solution. On the contrary it may result in historical blunder. Rahul Gandhi and Congress leaders need to learn from history and scriptures.

Read More

Keep It Up Rahul

For the first time, I admire Rahul Gandhi for watchfully seeing writings on the wall and remaining firm om his decision to relinquish Congress top post. He also deserves kudos for suggesting a non Nehru-Gandhi family member as party boss ruling out any room for his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to succeed him. Raga was,so far, known for dithering. Congress leaders are known for their dubious stand and more often than not, change colors but one hopes, Raga this time stick to his decision and Nehru-Gandhi family take a break from leading the grand old party,

There is no denying that need of the hour is that Congress choose a leader from amongst the lower middle class who can match prime minister Modi strategically-crafted image of lower middle class and poor's messiah, the image Indira Gandhi donned for long. In India, the middle class and lower strata of the populace form the bulk of mandate and swing from them decide the election outcome. The solid support of these groups to PM Modi is BJP greatest asset.

In seventies and eighties, Congress, by and large, drew its strength from lower middle, lower and poor men, In those days BJP or its earlier incarnation Jan Sangh was tagged as, 'Bania' (trader) party. Added to this stigma was the communal tag. At one time BJP and its mother. RSS was accused as riot tormentors and people, by and large, believed. It dented saffron parry image for long and Congress cashed on it.

But the scenario changed After Atal Bihari Vajpayee formed the govt with , non-Hindu centrist and socialist parties like JDU, Mamata Banerjee TMC, Jayalalitha AIADMK. Saffron Party was forced to keep the Hindutva alliance in abeyance. It was revived later when BJP won a clear majority on its own in 2014. The intervening period allowed BJP to gain more acceptability and win over the confidence of those classes, who were, so far, apprehensive of saffron agenda. And. finally. the rise of "chaiwala" Modi, whom a large section of Indian masses see an image of messiah, has uprooted the socialist and centrist from the center stage.

The point to drive home is that Congress can't upstage the BJP as long as it is headed by dynastic hierarchy. Sonia Gandhi and her siblings are not seen by Indian masses as messiah as Indira Gandhi was adored. Despite graduating in politics Rahul is still seen as " Pappu" and sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as more Italian than Indian her resemblance to Indira Gandhi notwithstanding. Raga as Congress chief was also surrounded by the pseudo advisers nd rootless leaders (Anand Sharma is one of many). Indian demography has drastically change. The Young Skilled India look much beyond dynastic politics.

Congress, as of today.needs drastic crafty image building to win back its mass support and only a charismatic leader, if not matching prime minister Modi's image, a runner-up will do. And such a leader has to be from amongst the common man, Its time GOP value the contribution of it workers and start a process of electing top leader in a true democratic fashion.

(Chander Sharma)

Read More

Cocktail Of Nationalism And Hindutva

Not only in India by all over the world, ‘nationalism’ is used by political parties for electoral because it attracts everybody attention. Its most tested election  formula. In India saffron party has greatly succeeded in using a cocktail of nationalism and Hindutva. 

This cocktail sank all other burning issues in 2019 parliament elections  so much so that BJP swept entire Hindi belt , Gujarat, Karnataka and made its strong presence in  West Bengal decimating left, the front once reigns supreme in the state

The massage is that polarisation continues to dominate Indian politics. And social media played its role in strengthening the polarisation. BJP's social media strategists knew it very well that a large section of people start their day with WhatsApp messages and get their daily briefing on how the Modi government had stopped infiltration as well as how it kept Muslims in ‘their place’.

Interestingly, Congress was spelt as ‘Khangress’ and Mamta Banerjee always termed ‘Mumtaz Bano’ in saffron party fed messages on social media. Such messages  worked very effectively. So much so that hordes of youngsters came out of lanes in most cities and took rallies on their own. The  nonstop coverage on TV channels projecting ‘Brand Modi’ helped in  convincing people to give PM a second term.

The party organizational apparatus was so well-lubricated that whatever charges against NDA were flown, the party’s workers and supporters had a ready reply to it, a narrative that convinced its core voter.

As against this, Congress and other opposition parties were nowhere. BJP had more than a dozen workers at every polling booth, Congress had none in most of the booths. Moreover, the deep fissures in Congress over sate leadership and ticket distribution worked against party's interests. Leaders worked against each other. For example, in Himachal, party tall leader and ex-chief minister continued his tirade against ex- state party chief, Sukhwinder Singh Shukku and ninegraian Pandit Sukh Ram. The hiatus between two old leaders was so strong that Congress didn't get lead  from Rampur, the stronghold of Virbhadra Singh.  In all previous elections, Congress had lead from this  assembly constituency.

 In Haryana, the leadership rivalry between ex-chief minister, BS Hooda, state Cong chief Ashok Tanwar and Kiran Chaudhary and Kumari Shailja  left workers demoralized  and working against each-other. Party top leadership failed miserably to unite regional satraps. The story is no different in MP and Rajasthan where sulking supporters of Sachin Pilot and Jyotiraditya Scindia, both contenders for chief minister ship, didn't come up as enthusiastically.   

These weakness explain why after a few months of emerging victorious in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, Congress was literally wiped out in these states. Congress won MP after 15 long years but just after six minths, it has surrendered the state to saffron surge. Given, the slander majority inMP and Rajastham Cong govts can fall under its own weight anytime. 

In politics complacency never pays. It goes to the credit of saffron party that it worked very hard to reach the present stage, Its a lesson for Congress and opposition, it’s the time to brace up and start hard work.

Read More

Rise Of Personality Cult In BJP

The massive popular mandate to Prime Minister Narendra Modi is good for the country as it has ensured the continuance of a stable government. 

India is the fastest growing economy and to retain the momentum, the country needed  a stable govt and decisive stewardship. Country men were sick of instability and the "politics of pull and pressures", the hallmarks of a "hotch-potch" alliance of power-hungry politicians. 

But then as the old saying goes "Power tends to corrupt; absolute power corrupts absolutely".  The observation was made by Lord Acton, a British historian of the late nineteenth century underlining that a person's sense of morality lessens as his or her power increases. It was amply proved by many rulers the world over including Indira Gandhi. It was her fear of losing power that led to promulgation of emergency in seventies and subsequently her downfall. 

Though Indian  parliamentary system of democracy has many inherent strengths to checkmate the pitfalls of autocrat or one man power (Call it  authoritarianism, despotism,  monocracy, shogunate, totalitarianism or absolutism), yet rise of an autocrat or monocrat  can't be ruled out. Our democratic experience of seven decades shows that despite participatory system of democracy, power, by and large, rests on one man (including Arvind Kejeriwal) and others become subservient to his wishes. The dynastic politics has added to this phenomenon. 

We have seen the rise af fall of Indira Gandhi era. She was seen as  paranoia as well as pride of India. Rising from a  label of " dumb doll-goongi gudiya", she gained the reputation of being a stern skillful and ruthless  politician, venerated by supporters but vilified by her opponents. She reigned vigorously and became a polarizing figure. But it was sheer arrogance of being invincible that led to her fall.

Another contemporary rising political phenomenon is China's president Xi Jingping. Xi came to power in 2012. At that time there was a ray of hope that he might transform the Communist Party into a modern  government intent on economic reforms and rule of law.  Instead, Xi’s actions led to astonishing centralization of power since the  rule of Mao Zedong, the founder of  communist China. Xi  has taken new titles, enforced internet censorship, and presided over a crackdown on human rights activists, minorities (Read Uyghur Muslims)and punished more than 200 lawyers ad purged thousands of his own party men under anti-corruption drive. He made himself so indispensable that, ultimately, a law was enacted to make Xi to remain in power for life time. 

The 2019 mandate see a rise of personality cult  in BJP, a  disturbing phenomenon in democracy. BJP at one time was deadly against it and used to slam Congress for this. Undoubtedly,  Modi’s personality cult  has been the BJP biggest asset since 2014 elections. It was crafted diligently over a  period of time and this narrative worked well cutting across caste and class barriers. Modi has emerged as a strong and charismatic leader, not shy of eulogizing his humble background. He is loved and admired by middle class, poorer and downtrodden much to the chagrin of so called secular  and socialist fores. In Modi Era, socialists have been almost decimated.

It is said Narendra Modi, never allows grass to grow under his feet. He has carefully crafted his protege, Amit Shah as organisational head over and above many senior leaders like Nitin Gadkari, Rajnath Singh, Shivraj Singh Chauhan to hold his sway. Now he is in total command and every big or small will have to dance to his tunes including NDA allies. This is the real danger as one man say is not good for a system sustained by participatory democratic values and practices.Our bitter past warns us to be vigilant.        

Read More

Himachal: Its: Jai... Jai ...Ram, Congress Decimated

The unprecedented mandate given by the people of Himachal to BJP in Lok Sabha elections reminds the 1977 elections. Even during Janata Party wave, the mandate to the party in Himachal was not as massive. Its a history and for the first time pro incumbency strong massive mandate is recorded. Not even. golden period of Congress raj, a landslide pro incumbency was ever seen.

The BJP's massive margin of victory in all four LS seats underlines how intense was the undercurrent. It explains the popularity of PM Modi plus CM Jairam Thakur. No other factor mattered and all skirmishes were swept away by Modi plus Jairam 'tsunami". In fact ,Congress was nowhere in the game right from the beginning. Party couldn't find suitable candidates well in time. Top leaders were not inclined to contest. There was a dearth of candidates and party had to hijack defectors. All candidates, except Ashray Sharma, were literally dragged into the contest.

By opening its doors to defectors, Congress showed its rank weakness. Moreover, except ex-CM Virbhadra Singh, no charismatic leader was there to match BJP tall leaders. Leader like Anand Sharma, Mukesh Agnihotri and PCC president Kuldeep Singh Rathore were hardly any match to Jairam Thakur, Shanta Kumar And PK Dhumal trio. Anand Sharma has never been a mass state leader. He was brought up and educated in Shimla because his father was in HP govt service but does not belong to the state. As such, he doesn't know how tough is life in rural Himachal, He once confessed to me that his urbane and outsider background has hampered his political career. He has risen to his current stature by courting Congress top leadership, even Dr. Y.S. Parmar and Virbhadra Singh. Anand Sharma just contested once in assembly elections from Shimla but lost to then BJP stalwart Daulat Ram Chauhan. And so is PPCC president Kuldeep Rathore. He is a Anand Sharma courtier and that's his only qualification to become state Cong chief. He has never fought any election. CLP leader Mukesh Agnihotri is no better, His base is only confined to his constituency, Haroli and this time BJP got massive lead from there.

You can manipulate party tickets, ministerial birth but not the mass base. It has to be created, build and nurse by working in field. Sooner, the Congress learns it, better for the party. With this background, there was hardly any contest in Himachal. So the severe drubbing of the party is nothing unusual. What is worse for the party is that it couldn't secure a lead in just one constituency, out of 68, not even in Rampur and Mandi sadar. It stands totally decimated.

Chief Minister, Jairam Thakur has proved he is sitting pretty on rock solid home turf. Nearly 70 percent vote share of BJP in Himachal is far better than others states where party clean swept. Its better than, Haryana, Delhi , Uttarakhand and other states. Modi plus Jairam Thakur popularity has sunk the Congress boat (not ship) deep. It will take long time for the party to float aloof.

(Chander Sharma)

Read More

Time For Cong To Break Fro Dynastic Politics

Will the severest election drubbing to India's Grand Old Party, Congress shake the party and its top leadership charter out a different course. from the status quo? Or Will the party stick to its Nehru family strong bond. These questions gain momentum after severest drubbing to the party in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The party that once reigns supreme in India today has failed even to get enough seats to become an official opposition party. Party's one drubbing after another is the result of its "pseudo elitist" mindset and resultant strategy.

After Indira Gandhi, party top leadership has, more or less. centered around rootless and high-profile gangs of "pseudo" leaders having hi-fi style totally cut off from the Indian masses. Congress president Rahul Gandhi, sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and beeline of so called leaders. It is one thing to shed crocodile tears for poor and downtrodden but on reality turf, its quite different. If you haven't been a part of poverty, struggle and toiling labour, you can't feel and share the pain, agony and sufferings of "real India". This explains why Congress populist Rs. 6000 monthly guaranteed income offer didn't work. Instead, prime minister Modi's Kisan Scheme of Rs.6000 was more acceptable.

The Congress biggest folly since seventies has been that party has heavily relied on Nehru-Gandhi dynasty and the main reason was to cash the charm of Nehru dynasty. It worked as long as pre-independence generations formed the bulk of India's electorate college but gradually it started changing as the country's socio-economic profile was spinning to a more vibrant and skilled awakened society.

Congress miserably failed to identify itself with new India. By the beginning of 21st century, India had turned into fastest growing economy with a vast pool of skill and talent. These people have emerged as important opinion makers and many among-st them are working in rural India.

The new emerging India found itself uncomfortable with the GOP, that continue to live on old-fashioned of facade "secularism" and sham economic policies for poor and downtrodden. By the time, the charm of Nehru-Gandhi dynasty had evaporated to great extent and a new class of leaders from lower strata had emerged. Narendra Modi was one of them. As the Modi uprooted Congress from Mahtama Gandhi home state Gujarat, it was the time Congress should have realized the potential threat from India's emerging leadership. There were many within the Congress but dynastic blinded GOP refused to swim with the tide.

Congress didn't mend its way even after the crushing defeat in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. It went ahead with its proclaimed love for Nehru dynasty and chose to hand over leadership to Rahul Gandhi, considered by many as "pappu-child" to challenge the 'darling" of Indian masses, Narendra Modi. Knowing well that Rahul Gandhi was no match to Modi, party rank and file were made to surrender to the dictates of a bunch of Nehru-Gandhi's loyalists to make prince to succeed royal mother Sonia Gandhi.

That was the end of road to power for Congress. Congress was still under great illusion that it could fool Indian masses with the charm and "boyish " utterances of Rahul Gandhi. It didn't learn any lesson from past. Indians always prefer "fighter", icons, heroes and ideals from amongst themselves. They sympathies with the victim of rich and elite system. And it was Modi, not Rahul Gandhi. The massive mandate, over 50 percent vote to PM Modi re-enforces this narrative. They have mandated with vengeance

Congress's biggest blunder in 2019 elections was to abuse and call "Modi chor hai". Nobody in India believe that PM Modi is "chor" or corrupt. Modi and his family simplicity, and humble background have endeared PM to masses. Any abuse at Modi is taken as abusing a common man. Its like kettle calling the white pot black. Moreover, who will believe a party and its leader tainted with corruption charges and involved in scam after scam? Even strong critics of Modi admit he is above board. One wonders why Rahul Gandhi advisers and strategists didn't realize this folly. It is said its never late in politics. GOP should make a fresh start.

Read More

2019. World’s Costliest Elections

2019, by all counts, is going to be one of the world’s costliest elections. The seven phase 2019  polling spanning over six-week from Himalaya In North To Kanyakumari in South and Thar desert in West to Sundarbans in East, is estimated to cost the nation's exchequer a whopping more than  Rs 50,000 crore ($7 billion). 

This is even higher than  $6.5 billion spent during 2016  U.S. presidential and congressional elections. The cost  comes to roughly $8 ( Rs. 560) spent per voter in a country where  60 percent of the population lives on around $3  (roughly Rs 200: Dollar equal to 69.68 rupee as of today) a day. Since the cost of 2014 elections was estimated nearly,$5 billion, 2019 marks a 40 percent jump.

The expenditure on social media is estimated to have jumped from s. 250 crore in 2014 to more than 5000 crore in 2019. Analysts and pollsters agree, it is difficult to collect the exact cost as the money spent on electioneering is much much higher than filed with poll body.Most of the spending isn’t publicly disclosed. Despite a legal expenditure cap, candidates and parties spend unrestricted amounts. Country's  big national parties have declared a combined income of over 13 billion rupees for the year ending March 2018. 

Can a developing country like India  afford such a  high cost? Are we richer than America? We must remember that US is the World's richest country and its  $21.3 trillion economy is 14 times richer than India and its per capita income of $64,767 (2018) is 33 time higher than India's per capita income of  $2,036, Isn't it that the flood of money spent in elections are washing away electoral democracy itself. What about the black money used in elections? Isn't this money not "blacking" our democracy? Every time the torrent of money used in elections raises uncomfortable question but are rarely addressed/ Think over it.  

Read More

Exit Polls Often Prove Wrong !

'Head I Win, Tail You Lose', that's how our uncanny politicians react over every matter. Latest is unabashed and brazen reactions over exit polls.Miffed over adverse projections, Congress and oppositions parties are out and out to summarily dismiss the polls of exit polls as "gossip" and manipulations.

The foul-mouthed Mamata Didi has gone to the extent of terming the exit polls ," plan to manipulate or replace thousands of EVMs through this gossip". For N Chandrababu Naidu, once in NDA and now straying in opposition. TCP leader and AP chief minister," Exit polls have proved to be incorrect and far from ground reality in many instances". Congress leader Shashi Tharoor, otherwise more sensible among contemporary breed, believes "exit polls are all wrong". He quoted Australia whers last weekend, 56 different exit polls proved wrong. However, Jammu & Kashmir NC leader and ex-chief minister, Omar Abdullah, also a proct of dynastic politics, was more sensible saying, "Every single exit poll can’t be wrong!

Interestingly, the same leaders (chiefly Cong) have willingly and gladly accepted the exits polls of Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh assembly elections as these favored them. Then BJP leaders were not readily accepting the exit polls.

Exit polls are not the final results and these are just estimations and projections of possible outcome of voting trend. World over, many time they proved wrong. Recently, pollsters were proved wrong in Australia as for over two years, polls had put the left-leaning Labor party ahead of the conservative Coalition and were consistently predicting a Labor win. Of the 16 polls held since the election was called last month, all went in favour of the Labor Party. But final results proved otherwise and labor party again lost to Liberal-led coalition. Frustrated over failure of pollsters,some politicians and commentators called for scrapping of opinion polls. ABC’s election analyst Antony Green called it “a bit of a spectacular failure of opinion polling”.

Not only Australian, pollsters went totally wrong in U.S in 2016 presidential elections. All pollster were dead sure of Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton victory, but Republican and real estate mogul defied pollsters to defeat Clinton.

Last year Israel's pollsters were left red-faced after re-election of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s election victory. Most of the pollsters were predicting Netanyahu’s defeat. Later pollsters admitted they were "blindsided by reticent rightist voters and unwittingly prodded waverers to back the incumbent".

Such aberrations are there and may give little hope for opposition parties in India. But, it is highly unlikely that Indian pollsters could have been blindsided by Right wing Indian voters. May 23 will throw light on this.

But, rule of fair game is that you should accept the umpire decision. Accept the exist polls as they are and let the May 23 final outcome decide who is right and who is wrong/

(Chander Sharma )

Read More

Who Will Win 2019 Parliament Election In India ?

With the completion of polling for 484 seats of Lok Sabha in six phases, its time to look at the possible scenario that could emerge on May 23, the day votes are counted. The polling for remaining  59 seats are to be held on May 19.

One thing is almost certain. Congress has nothing to lose in this elections but stakes are very high for BJP. 2014 elections were unique in many ways. There were many firsts.  For one, the saffron party (BJP) was mandated an absolute majority on its own for the first time since elections were held to India parliament. For another, vote share of a ruling party BJP (31.0%) was the lowest for a party to form a majority government. And also for the first time, the Grand Old Party, Congress could not even win enough seat to become even an official opposition party. It was Congress worst show, even worse than during 1977 Janata Party wave.  With 31 % vote share in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP was able to get  simple majority. Congress vote share was just  19.3 per cent much less than 29 per cent in 2009, 

So, one safe projections can be made that 2014 is not going to be repeated either way. For saffron party, 2014 was its best-ever performance since it came into being and saffron party had swept many states including UP, Rajasthan. Uttarakhand , HimachalPradesh  and Delhi. Its performance in Haryana was excellent as party was able to win 7 out of 10 sets own its own.  It was this victory (Modi wave) that  led to party getting absolute majority in state assembly own its own for the first time.

Let us look at 2014 Lok Sabha results. In the cow belt (Gujarat included), out of 291 seats,  BJP had won 237, as good as in 1977 show when BJP ( then Jansangh) was part of Janata Party.  Congress could win just 19 seats and winning 5 seats in Gujarat was its best show. It could win just 2 seats in Maharashtra, the only big state, GOP has some mass base. Congress was wiped out inRajasthan. Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, Himachal, J&K and Delhi. It could just win  one seat in Haryana where party was in power. 

On the other hand, saffron party, riding on Modi wave, BJP swept Rajasthan winning all 25 seats,  India largest state UP winning 71 out of 80 and second largest Maharashtra, winning 41 seats out of 48 with alliance partner,Shiv Sena.  BJP plus its allies also won convincingly 31 out of 40 seats in Bihar,, Saffron party won  26 out of 29 in MP, all 14 (BJP 12 Ally JVM 2) in Jharkhand,  and all 6 seats in J& K with alliance partner PDP. It did exceedingly well in Chhattisgarh by winning 10 seats out of 11. In nutshell, it was BJPoutstanding show in Hindi heartland plus Western India  that helped the party to get absolute absolute majority. 

However, 2019 is not 2014 and much water have flowed down the Ganges. The 2014 "Modi Wave' is not as discernible this time. The  issues san rhetoric and invective driven election blitzkrieg  speak voluminously that there is no wave or anti or pro-incumbency factor working in any political party favour. This time voters might vote for political and economic agenda of the stakeholders. 

Be that as it may, the ruling BJP led NDA  can hardly repeat its 2014 show this time, especially in  those states from where party won majority of the seats. And its alliance partners, SAD in Punjab, Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, LJP And JD(U) in Bihar and Apna Dal in UP are also not as comfortably placed. The SP-BSP alliance in UP is set to perform much better. In 2014.  BSP could not win even a single seat in UP while SP won just 5 seats. Congress though rejuvenated by the charm of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, might not do as better but can upset the BJP apple cart. In Rajasthan. Congress is expected to put up a better show . Even a miracle can't help BJPrepeat its 2014 performance in Rajasthan.

In UP, with a shift of nearly 24 % vote in its favour in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP won 71 seats getting more than 42 % popular votes and its ally Apna Dal won 2 seats with just 1 % vote.  Samajwadi Party could win 5 seats with 22. 20 % vote and Mayawati's BSPcouldn't win even despite getting 19.60 % votes. Congress with 7.50 % vote could win  its traditional seat, Amethi And Rae Bareli. Party lost its 10.50. mostly to BJP. In 2019 elections,SP and BSP have joined hands and contesting elections jointly. 

The BSP-SP alliance was formed after opposition experimented unity in  Gorakhpur and Kairana Lok Sabha by-elections held in 2018 . BJP lost Kairana despite fielding the daughter of the sitting MP Hukum Singh, whose death led to by-elections. The alliance hopes to repeat Kairana and Gorakhpur show in LS elections. And there is a catch also. In Gorakhpur and Kairana, Congress extended support to opposition combined candidate but was later shunned by SP-BSP alliance. Party is now fighting alone in U,P, and after the entry of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, Congress is seen  doing better. Its  good show will harm BJP more than SP-BSP social engineering driven alliance. A small shift of 5 to 7 percent vote can severely damage BJP. There is a big change in this election. According to renowned journalist Prannoy Roy, the factor that stands out the most is the level of polarization among Hindu voters that was rarely seen before. Voters either love and admire Modi or dislike Modi intensely.  Virtually, no voter is indifferent. If this factor works, then results will be quite surprising. Most of he opinion polls agree that its difficult for BJP to repeat 2014 seats but as the opposition is fragmented, BJP led NDA is seen as biggest winning alliance.

At best, BJP is expected to repeat less than half of the cow belt (Gujarat included) 291 seats. Congress is expected to do better inRajasthan, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir. It wont be able to repeat its 2014 performance in Maharashtra. It may add some seats from Wast Bengal but then is set to lose in South. TDP, its 2014 alliance partner is no more with it in Andhra Pradesh and In Tamil Nadu,the AIADMAK(All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam), without the Jayalalitha, is not in a strong position to win 37 seats, party won in 2014. In Karnataka, BJP won  17 seats out of 28 with 43 % vote share. Congress with 40.80 % votes could win 9 and Janata Dal (Secular) won 2 seats getting 11 % votes. This time Congress and JD(S) alliance are fighting jointly and  is in power.  As such, it is expected to dent BJP.  Saffron party  may snatch a few ore  seats in Odisha from BJD. Last time, party   won  just win  one seat out of 21. Congress , which drew blank last time will add to its tally.  Telangana is still a pocket borough of K.Chandrashekar Rao's 

TRS. In Kerala, Congress may not repeat its 2014 performance in Keral where it won 12 seats out of 20. This time LDF is expected to do better than Congress led UDF.  

 As of now BJP  is well placed in North-East.  After ruling the region for years, the Congress lost its last bastion in Northeast as BJPally Mizo National Front (MNF) wrestled Mizoram in December last. The entire Northeast is now ruled by either BJP or its allies under NEDA (North East Democratic Alliance). In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) allies, includingNaga People's Front (1), Meghalaya's National Peoples' Party (1) and the Sikkim Democratic Front (1), together won 11 seats North North-Est. The BJP had won 7 seats in Assam and 1 in Arunachal Pradesh.

The Congress had won eight seats in the Northeast in 2014. It got three in Assam, two in Manipur, one each in Arunachal Pradesh,Meghalaya and Mizoram, Congress is aiming to win 20 out of 25 seats in North-East but it seems to be far-fetched .  In short, BJP loss in Hindi heartland is difficult to be made up by some gain in South and is set to fall short of clear majority. In such a scenario, smaller parties like TRS, BJD and even Shiv Sena and Mayawati BSP will play kingmaker role.    

There is no denying that without conquering Bigger states like UP, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu  200 plus seats, No party can dream of getting absolute majority. Congress ruled India single handed as long as it conquered UP,Maharashtra, West Bengal, TN and AP. A newly born Janata Party got mandate to rule India with the help of UP and Bigger Bihar (Jharkhand was then part ofBihar). BJP Conquered Delhi after sweeping UP, Maharashtra and Bihar in 2014. Can BJP or Congress do this in 2019. Whosoever conquer  bigger states, he will rule the Delhi. 

(Chander Sharma)

        

Read More

Criminals As Lawmakers In India. Its Dangerous

Breaking News: UP Law Maker Raja Bhaiyya Put Under House Arrest During Today Polling  

Isn't shameful for World largest democratic country to have lawmakers like Raja Bhaiyya? If our lawmakers happen to be mafia don, then where is the law of land?

Raja Bhaiyya aka Raghuraj Pratap Singh is an Independent MLA in UP and was a minister in Akhilesh Yadav cabinet. Raja Bhaiyya is known to be a mafia don and is presently in his sixth term as a legislator. He wields considerable influence in Pratapgarh and neighbouring districts. Seven other 'influential' leaders of the area were also be put under house arrest, These include Vinod Saroj, MLA from Babaganj and Samajwadi Party leaders Gulshan Yadav and Chavinath Yadav.

Raja Bhaiyya  grandfather Raja Bajrang Bahadur Singh  remained as Lt. Governor of Himachal Pradesh  and was  founder vice-chancellor of Pant Nagar Agriculture University.

According to ADR report, every second candidate contesting 2019 Lok Sabha electiobs has a criminal background. Out of  674 candidates in poll fray in phase 5 polling, 126 have criminal cases against them. 

In September 2018, the Supreme Court rued that all the candidates must declare their criminal records in the newspapers.As such, all candudates have declared their criminal past both BJP, Congress have almost 50% candidates with criminal cases in this Lok Sabha polls.

Think before vote, Its a choice between devil and deep sea ?

Read More

The Choice Between Devil And The Deep Sea

It should concern all right-thinking citizens of India. After experimenting with democracy for nearly seven decades, India is still looking towards political parties with tainted past and blurred vision. Among the two top stakeholders of power, the older one hands are soaked in 1984 anti-Sikh riots and the other one prime suspect in 2002 inter-communal violence. All and sundry know who were the preparator of Gujarat riots.Then, there is a third combination of odd buddies, foes-turned electoral friend, driving their strength from caste and dubious means. Its choice between choice between devil and deep blue sea. 

Given the ground realities, democracy is ot in safer hands. What is worse, the very foundation of our electoral battle is rooted in deceit and fraud and falsehood. Contestants give fake information, file false declaration, especially over election expenditure and mislead voters on many counts. How can, a democratic set-up flourish whose very start is based on fraud and deceit.Such a start only brings darkness, And later than sooner democracy dies in darkness.

Read More

2019 General Elections: The Key Issues And Political Parties

As India enter last phases of  voting for 2019 general elections, the prime concern of  more than 900 million voters veers around  on  key  issues raised during campaigning and political parties' election manifestos. . 

In 2014 general elections, main focus of the BJP and its prime ministerial candidate was on job creation. Modi had promised to create 2 crore jobs annually and bring better days "achche din".  However,  this time both these key issues have been dumped and focus of ruing alliance is more on  rhetoric like 'Ali vs Bajrangbali" 'Asli Rashtrawadi vs Nakli ( Muscular Nationalism vs Sham) and personal vilification's. In fact, the 2019 parliament elections will go down in history as the filthiest one with record number of poll body notices to top leaders including PM Modi, BJP chief Amit Shah and Cong chief Rahul Gandhi for using foul languages.    
   
2019 election scenario is even  worse than 2004. The fragmented opposition parties are in a no position to puncture  Modi's apple cart.The prime ministerial ambitions of opposition leaders have weighted heavier than national interests. Instead, they will end eating into each other votes benefiting the  BJP.     

Jobs

Better job opportunities are voters’ top priority, a survey of more than 270,000 people by electoral watchdog Association for Democratic Reforms has shown.

With more than half the population of 1.3 billion younger than 25 and millions joining the workforce every year, the lack of jobs created during Modi’s term is a major issue.

Unemployment rose to 7.2 percent in February, its highest since September 2016, data from private thinktank the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy shows.

A government report leaked to the Business Standard newspaper said unemployment in the year ending June 2018 rose to 6.1 percent, its highest in at least 45 years.

India's unemployment rate has hit highest level in last 2 and a half years. The rate of unemployment in the country stood at 7.9 per cent in the first, 8.1 per cent in the second, and 8.4 per cent in the third week of the month, CMIE said in a statement dated April 23 citing the findings of its household survey. 

According to CMIE, the overall unemployment rate as of April 25 was 7.5 per cent across India. The data also shows that the unemployment rate in the urban parts of the country was at 7.6 per cent, and it stands at 7.5 per cent in the rural regions.

As the BJP led NDA govt hasn't redeemed its poll promise, the job creation remains a secondary issue for ruling alliance this time. 

On the other hand,  main opposition Congress party has promised a slew of measures to reduce the unemployment in the country.

Farm Distress 

Ever increasing tough conditions for millions of poor farmers reeling from rising costs and lower crop prices have been a big issues over the years, and have impacted every election.

Nearly half the population in every rural constituency  works in farming and more than 80 percent of an estimated 263 million farmers have landholdings smaller than 5 acres. This imbalance has resulted in farm and labourer distress. Distressed farmers have been forced to commit suicide.  

After losing power to Congress in three large farm states in December, the BJP government announced an annual handout of 6,000 rupees  to small farmers in its February budget. This week its election manifesto vowed to roll that out to all farmers.

Congress, too, has promised help, saying it will expand a jobs program to guarantee rural homes 150 days of work a year.It also pledged annual handouts of 72,000 rupees to India’s poorest families.

The minimum income scheme in the Congress manifesto is a big-ticket promise which covers most of India’s poor. However, a big  question this scheme faces is: if, in the next few years, poverty is likely to decline in terms of proportion of BPL families as claimed in its (UPA’s) performance record for the previous terms, why should each family get it for five years? 

Look at PM-Kisan scheme. It  targets landowning marginal and small farmers, not even all rural poor and therefore, is limited in its coverage, unlike minimum income scheme, which has larger and more relevant coverage of poor households (both urban and rural) and higher amounts paid per family (Rs 6,000 per month compared with Rs 6,000 per year under PM-Kisan).

Both PM-Kisan and Congress minimum income scheme involve direct cash transfers instead of product or service subsidies. It is  highly debatable whether the poor need only cash as that would reduce the leakage, or access to adequate and quality services/products. In a way, promising cash incentive during election is a sort of bribe.  

Interestingly, while both BJP and Congress shed tears on farmers' distress,both parties' manifestos avoid even a mention of MSP or any such measure for ensuring better farmers’ income. Even a regional party DMK is also evasive on the MSP promise. NDA has stated the minimum percentage of profit over cost of production — though it did not deliver the same adequately. The DMK is very specific about the MSP for paddy and sugarcane crops and mentions the desired minimum support price for both. The BJD states that it would press  the Union Government for paddy MSP of Rs 2,930 per quintal .

The TMC promises appropriate procurement price for rice, wheat, jute and other major crops. However, on farm loan waivers, it just says ‘small land marginal farmers unable to pay their debts would be in our thoughts for some suitable relief’. 

The CPI and CPM manifestos are very clear and detailed about the agrarian issues and their take on these. They focus on farmer issues like implementation of the Swaminathan Committee recommendations on the prices of farm produce, loan waivers and seeking a special session of Parliament to discuss agrarian issues. 

Must ponder over these issues and then vote

(Chander Sharma)

Read More