Soon after the first case of the coronavirus arrived in India in late January, government responded with restrictions on flights and screenings at its airports. At that time India had more than 80,000 arrivals every day, mostly from Europe and the Gulf States, where the virus had spread. However, most of the travelers weren't checked for virus as the case of singer Kanika Kapoor and NRIs arriving in hordes in Punjab latter proved. Punjab govt has confirmed that over 90,000 NRIs has arrived in state.
As millions of people live in proximity across the country in densely populated slums where access to health care is very poor, union government decided to impose a three-week lockdown. It was necessary to mitigate the inevitable spread of the disease.
Studies from China suggest that people with uncontrolled hypertension and diabetes are more likely to experience severe Covid-19 and die from it. About a third of India’s population is hypertensive, and over one in 10 adults are diabetic. Children in China, were less infected but India with millions of undernourished children,are more prone to infections.
India’s high rates of tuberculosis, pneumonia, smoking and poor air quality won’t help when it comes to a respiratory disease. Some were counting on the summer heat and humidity to bail India out, but there was no evidence that the rising temperature would stop the disease.
The initial estimates had suggested that 300 million to 500 million Indians were likely to be infected with the coronavirus by the end of July. Most of the cases would be without symptoms or with mild infections, but about a tenth — 30 million to 50 million — would most likely be severe.
The researchers' model has predicted that at the outbreak’s peak, even with conservative assumptions, there would be 10 million patients with severe Covid-19 disease in India, many of whom would need to be hospitalized.
India has fewer than 100,000 intensive-care unit beds and 20,000 ventilators, most of which are only in the large cities. Although the proportion of Covid-19 patients who die has averaged between 2 percent and 3 percent globally, but they were in places where the health system is better equipped. India does not have the strong health system and economic resources of Covid-19-affected high-income countries or China’s ability to control population flows in the country. So, a lockdown was the only option to control the disease.
By the time PM announced the lockdown, India had officially counted about 500 cases of coronavirus infection and estimated 10 deaths because of the contagion. After a week of lockdown there were 1,637 with 1,466 active cases, 38 deaths. The numbers are believed to be low because testing for the virus has been very limited. Estimates from the group of scientists and others suggest the actual number of infection cases in India is likely to be about 21,000 by now.
Our estimates and those from the Indian Council for Medical Research indicate that a national lockdown, if adhered to well, could reduce the number of infections at the peak of the pandemic — expected by early May — by 70 percent to 80 percent, depending on the degree of compliance with physical distancing. Our estimates suggest that about a million people would still need hospital beds and critical care. Had India not imposed the lockdown, it would have been five million to six million people.
India has four to six weeks before the coronavirus outbreak hits its peak. It is absolutely necessary to use this window of opportunity to create an enormous, affordable and easily available testing infrastructure, intensify efforts to identify the sick, trace their contacts and isolate them and prepare for the avalanche. Hygienic quarantine facilities and intensive-care beds must be set up in all state capitals.
New Delhi has to move swiftly to marshal its financial and human resources, and build temporary Covid-19 treatment facilities; procure necessary equipment, including test kits; and buy personal protective equipment, hospital beds, oxygen-flow masks and ventilators. At the same time, it has to train health workers in infection control and safe testing.
If India fails to fill these serious gaps in its capacity, the pandemic will exact a heavy toll. The disease is likely to return later in the year. Many Indians still lack immunity to the coronavirus, although the extent will be known only when surveys are conducted that are able to test the population for antibodies that indicate their exposure to the disease.
The lockdown has most likely saved millions of lives, but the bold public health actions of the government should be matched by similar efforts to ensure that the pandemic does not generate a secondary hunger and poverty crisis. Nearly half a billion Indians earn daily wages and have no meaningful savings. The state governments of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh have already announced a daily minimum allowance and monthly rations to help families avert a hunger crisis. Others are likely to follow.