रविवार, 22 मार्च 2020

Coronavirus: When Will End The Outbreak?

How scary is it that with cities and places once teeming with the hustle and bustle of daily life have turned out into ghost-towns. Restrictions from lock downs,closures of malls, business establishments educational institutions to travel restrictions and bans on mass gatherings have added to the fear.

In short, The world has shut down. State after states and city after cities are being locked down. In latest move, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan are among states locked down till March 31.

This is an unprecedented response to this globally epidemic turned pandemonium. It will take long long time- possible years together- for the effects of this deadly virus to go out..

Obliviously, nations and societies can't remain closed for long time. Even if it remain closed for some time, the social-economic damage would be catastrophic.

As such, all countries need a way out to lift the restrictions and getting back to normal.But then there is a strong fear that If restrictions are lifted, you are allowing the virus back. As such, It is a massive scientific and societal challenge.

The immediate concern is how to prevent the outbreak of this killer virus . The best possible way is to immunize the people so that virus cannot cause outbreaks. However, in the absence of vaccine, its not possible.

The latest update says first person given an experimental vaccine was in US this week after researchers were allowed to skip the usual rules of performing animal tests first.

Though vaccine research is being done at unprecedented speed, but there is no guarantee that it will be successful and global immunization will be possible.

As a short-term strategy, its better to drive down cases as much as possible to prevent hospitals being overflowed. Its universal truth that when we run short of intensive care beds, then more and more deaths follow .

India's strategy of "Janata Curfew" could be successful for suppressing the outbreak of the virus among community. If it works, it will allow lifting some restrictions for a while. And if cases rise, another round of restrictions can be enforced.

But these are short-term measures.The long term measure is a vaccine and we all hope that will happen as quickly as possible. But it may take some 12 to 18 months for this vaccine to come in the market. So we need to hold our nerves till that time.