In 2014 general elections, main focus of the BJP and its prime ministerial candidate was on job creation. Modi had promised to create 2 crore jobs annually and bring better days "achche din". However, this time both these key issues have been dumped and focus of ruing alliance is more on rhetoric like 'Ali vs Bajrangbali" 'Asli Rashtrawadi vs Nakli ( Muscular Nationalism vs Sham) and personal vilification's. In fact, the 2019 parliament elections will go down in history as the filthiest one with record number of poll body notices to top leaders including PM Modi, BJP chief Amit Shah and Cong chief Rahul Gandhi for using foul languages.
2019 election scenario is even worse than 2004. The fragmented opposition parties are in a no position to puncture Modi's apple cart.The prime ministerial ambitions of opposition leaders have weighted heavier than national interests. Instead, they will end eating into each other votes benefiting the BJP.
Jobs
Better job opportunities are voters’ top priority, a survey of more than 270,000 people by electoral watchdog Association for Democratic Reforms has shown.
With more than half the population of 1.3 billion younger than 25 and millions joining the workforce every year, the lack of jobs created during Modi’s term is a major issue.
Unemployment rose to 7.2 percent in February, its highest since September 2016, data from private thinktank the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy shows.
A government report leaked to the Business Standard newspaper said unemployment in the year ending June 2018 rose to 6.1 percent, its highest in at least 45 years.
India's unemployment rate has hit highest level in last 2 and a half years. The rate of unemployment in the country stood at 7.9 per cent in the first, 8.1 per cent in the second, and 8.4 per cent in the third week of the month, CMIE said in a statement dated April 23 citing the findings of its household survey.
According to CMIE, the overall unemployment rate as of April 25 was 7.5 per cent across India. The data also shows that the unemployment rate in the urban parts of the country was at 7.6 per cent, and it stands at 7.5 per cent in the rural regions.
As the BJP led NDA govt hasn't redeemed its poll promise, the job creation remains a secondary issue for ruling alliance this time.
On the other hand, main opposition Congress party has promised a slew of measures to reduce the unemployment in the country.
Farm Distress
Ever increasing tough conditions for millions of poor farmers reeling from rising costs and lower crop prices have been a big issues over the years, and have impacted every election.
Nearly half the population in every rural constituency works in farming and more than 80 percent of an estimated 263 million farmers have landholdings smaller than 5 acres. This imbalance has resulted in farm and labourer distress. Distressed farmers have been forced to commit suicide.
After losing power to Congress in three large farm states in December, the BJP government announced an annual handout of 6,000 rupees to small farmers in its February budget. This week its election manifesto vowed to roll that out to all farmers.
Congress, too, has promised help, saying it will expand a jobs program to guarantee rural homes 150 days of work a year.It also pledged annual handouts of 72,000 rupees to India’s poorest families.
The minimum income scheme in the Congress manifesto is a big-ticket promise which covers most of India’s poor. However, a big question this scheme faces is: if, in the next few years, poverty is likely to decline in terms of proportion of BPL families as claimed in its (UPA’s) performance record for the previous terms, why should each family get it for five years?
Look at PM-Kisan scheme. It targets landowning marginal and small farmers, not even all rural poor and therefore, is limited in its coverage, unlike minimum income scheme, which has larger and more relevant coverage of poor households (both urban and rural) and higher amounts paid per family (Rs 6,000 per month compared with Rs 6,000 per year under PM-Kisan).
Both PM-Kisan and Congress minimum income scheme involve direct cash transfers instead of product or service subsidies. It is highly debatable whether the poor need only cash as that would reduce the leakage, or access to adequate and quality services/products. In a way, promising cash incentive during election is a sort of bribe.
Interestingly, while both BJP and Congress shed tears on farmers' distress,both parties' manifestos avoid even a mention of MSP or any such measure for ensuring better farmers’ income. Even a regional party DMK is also evasive on the MSP promise. NDA has stated the minimum percentage of profit over cost of production — though it did not deliver the same adequately. The DMK is very specific about the MSP for paddy and sugarcane crops and mentions the desired minimum support price for both. The BJD states that it would press the Union Government for paddy MSP of Rs 2,930 per quintal .
The TMC promises appropriate procurement price for rice, wheat, jute and other major crops. However, on farm loan waivers, it just says ‘small land marginal farmers unable to pay their debts would be in our thoughts for some suitable relief’.
The CPI and CPM manifestos are very clear and detailed about the agrarian issues and their take on these. They focus on farmer issues like implementation of the Swaminathan Committee recommendations on the prices of farm produce, loan waivers and seeking a special session of Parliament to discuss agrarian issues.
Must ponder over these issues and then vote
(Chander Sharma)